The D-Day Arrives - Will Ballot Paper 'Placement' decide the ICAI elections? By Arun Giri ( with inputs from election Pundit Mr. Anirudha Shenwai )

This year has been a disaster for first time candidates who are the sons /daughters of former Presidents. One exception - Piyush Sohanrajji Chhajed. His father, the Late Shri S.P. Chhajed was a 6 term Council member, known for his principles... he was also the recipient of extraordinarily good fortune, especially in one election, where he won by 1.25 votes... yes one and a quarter vote!! The person who lost - another legend - Shri N.P. Sarda, who then went on to top the next election and became President of our Institute.

Piyush has run one of the most low key, yet a highly effective campaign, that for his good, stayed under the radar and hence escaped the attention of other candidates. I caught Piyush's under-current 48 hours before the election, when a few of my friends were vocal about voting for him... and when one of my industry friends in Mumbai said Piyush's reach out to their Corporate House had make a mark. I had no doubt Piyush would be the 'wild card'... he has! The question is - Can he pull this off?

 As D-Day arrives, Lets take a hard look at the nos. and the one factor that may seal the fate of Vishnu, Dhiraj, Durgesh Kabra, Mr. Adukia & above all, Piyush :

1. Are Dhiraj & Durgesh Kabra safe?

To my mind, Dhiraj Khandelwal will survive the scare of his life... its been an extremely underwhelming performance from the 'Kandivali ka Chokra' but at the moment, he is 300 ahead of his fellow Kandivali candidate Vishnu.

Crucial Eliminations for Dhiraj - The ones of Anil Bhandari & Rajkumar Adukia. These should be good to see him through. 

Lets turn our focus on Durgesh Kabra... his performance well below par... but he too is getting the seconds he needs. However, for him the big one is Anil Bhandari's elimination.. he needs and may possibly get 300 from here... that should be sufficient to ensure his 140 vote gap with Mr. Adukia only grows, doesn't reduce... 

Crucial Eliminations for Durgesh Kabra - Drushti Desai, Shriniwas Joshi & of course Anil, Anil, Anil! Mr. Kabra's supporters should be chanting the Anil Chalisa all of today... joking joking :)

2. Vishnu Agarwal's Minefield laden Path:

There are only 2 eliminations that matter for Vishnu... he needs at least 300 from Balkishan Agarwal's elimination... if he gets that, he surpasses Mr. Adukia... the problem for him - Mr. Patodia is still 300 below quota and may get that large chunk which otherwise may have come to him. Assuming he gets that, then on Mr. Adukia's elimination, Vishnu needs another 300. Is it possible? Yes... but for that, he first needs a massive transfer of seconds from BK in Surat. He either needs to overtake Durgesh Kabra or Piyush... both are 200 & 400 votes ahead of him. Vishnu's path is narrow - its almost like scoring a goal from a long-distance free kick... but I am not ready to write him off just yet...

Crucial Eliminations for Vishnu -  Balkishan & Mr. Adukia.

3. Can Piyush Hold his serve & nerve? :

 For the supporters of Piyush Chhajed, it is akin to those last 10 minutes of a soccer match where your team is leading by 3-2 ... then you are down to the last 3 minutes.. and then injury time... when you start chewing nails, saying prayers, closing your eyes, covering your face and start whistling to egg on the referee to end the match right there!  Emotions aside, this essentially is Piyush's path to a victory - Get a good chunk of votes from Anil Bhandari ( given Piyush & Anil's common voters in Corporates ) ... and keep seeing Vishnu & Mr. Adukia in his rear view mirror but not allow them an inch of road to overtake him... 

Crucial Eliminations for Piyush - Shriniwas Joshi, Drushti Desai & Anil ! 

4. Will Battle Paper 'Proximity' decide the 2021 elections:

 All of us do not make up our minds on second preferences in advance... many voters take a call on second preference at the spur of the moment after marking their first preference, particularly when they are equally fond of 3-4 candidates... this is where the placement of candidate on ballot paper makes a big difference... as of now, that ballot paper placement favours Piyush... here is how  - he is right below Anil Bhandari, a little above Drushti and a little further away from Joshi... whereas for Vishnu, the best hope is Mr. Adukia who is on the  top at left side of ballot paper with Vishnu just 2 places below... but on right top side of ballot paper are Durgesh Kabra & Dhiraj... so the eyes will move to them as well... question - will the voter's eyes first go to the right side or scroll down the ballot paper? This may decide the election... 

   In the last elections, Mr. Adukia's eliminations sent Mr. Joshi ( who was next to him on right side top ) straight past Mangesh Kinare and to the Council. Who will it be this time? Lady luck will smile on someone today... just a few hours for us to find out the final 11!