As Eliminations start, 3 trends that will determine the fate of Mumbai candidates & Vishal Doshi! -By Arun Giri

The first preference count for Central Council elections has stunned everyone, with sitting members trailing big time… Umesh Sharma’s breath-taking performance has meant at least Mumbai heavyweights are in serious danger of losing, while Vishal Doshi and Purushottam Khandelwal’s first preference count has been nothing short of extraordinary … meaning Gujarat could pull off the unthinkable and bag 3 seats… at the expense of Mumbai!

As the elimination rounds begin, watch out for more surprises and some nervous moments… here is my take of the state of play  :

1. Vishal Doshi’s path to victory :

I expect Vishal to pull this off… Drushti Desai’s elimination will be important. Conventional wisdom says Drushti’s second preferences will overwhelmingly go to Priti Savla but it is almost a certainty that she will cross the quota even before Drushti’s elimination. That means Vishal could net 200-250 votes from Drushti’s elimination and cross 3000 even before the Surat eliminations come into play. All he ll need is 600 votes from

The two Surat eliminations which is absolutely within his reach. All my money is on Vishal to make it past the winning post.

2.  The battle of suburbs and nerves - The 2015 redux!

 Yes … we are there once again where we found ourselves in 2015 elections .. when Prafulla Chhajed, Durgesh Kabra, Anil Bhandari, BM Agarwal and Dheeraj Khandelwal were all bunched in the range of 1450-1620 range after first count. 3 of them made it while BM and Durgesh lost out. This time it is the quarter of Vishnu, Dheeraj, Durgesh Kabra and Mr. Adukia. Of the 4, 2 will certainly make it and if Piyush stalls with fewer seconds after an impressive first count, then don’t count out 3 of the 4 sneaking in. Watch out for Balkishan Agarwal’s elimination , which may give Vishnu a big boost!

3. The big unknowns :

Drushti, Shriniwas Joshi & Anil Bhandari’s eliminations will be important … each of them will be at over 1500… with Joshi and Anil at over 2000 when they possibly bow out … while Durgesh Kabra May be the beneficiary of a good chunk of Anil’s votes, Piyush too may benefit especially due to his outreach to corporates, which has so far been an Anil stronghold.

   

All in all… the suspense continues!