1st Preference Votes Regional council

Sr. No.	Name		1st
1	Vishnu Kumar Agarwal	Mumbai	914
2	Dilip Apte Moreshwar	Pune	698
3	Lalit Laxminarayan Bajaj	Bhayandar	510
4	Punita Narendra Bansal	Mumbai	228
5	Anil Bhandari  Satyanarayan	Mumbai	772
6	Anand Chandak	Washim	139
7	Vijay Chhallani	Pune	342
8	Sushrut Chitale	Mumbai	1555
9	Pramod Dhamankar	Vasai	358
10	Vandana Dodhia	Mumbai	574
11	Surendra Gaggar	Surat	245
12	Rinkle Gorwara	Mumbai	254
13	Raj Jagetia	Mumbai	475
14	Ashok Chand Jain	Mumbai	390
15	Saket Jain	Mumbai	356
16	Sandeep Jain	Mumbai	596
17	Sarvesh Joshi	Pune	661
18	Jayesh Kala	Mumbai	568
19	Ambar Kasliwal	Mumbai	276
20	Subodh Kedia	Ahmedabad	686
21	Abhijit Kelkar	Nagpur	655
22	Dhiraj Khandelwal	Mumbai	1068
23	Mangesh Kinare	Mumbai	1291
24	Girish Kulkarni	Aurangabad	775
25	Vijaykant Kulkarni	Pune	582
26	Mahesh Madkholkar	Thane	682
27	Mahesh Manharlal Shah	Vasai	36
28	Neel Majithia	Mumbai	815
29	Mahendra Mehta	Mumbai	577
30	Mitish Modi	Surat	528
31	Mukesh Mody	Mumbai	30
32	Satyanarayan Mundada	Pune	819
33	Abhishek Nagori	Vadodara	1226
34	Ashok Pagariya	Pune	380
35	Dayaram Paliwal	Bhayandar	421
36	Manoj Pandit	Mumbai	90
37	Sunil Patodia	Mumbai	1205
38	Chandrakant Pawar	Nashik	728
39	Ramesha Shetty	Mumbai	717
40	Parag Raval	Ahmedabad	2068
41	Kamlesh Saboo	Thane	494
42	Jaideep Sahasrabudhe	Thane	222
43	Priti Savla	Thane	1514
44	Hardik Shah	Surat	932
45	Julfesh Shah	Nagpur	1000
46	Priyam Shah	Ahmedabad	805
47	Shardul Shah	Mumbai	1166
48	Shruti Shah	Mumbai	516
49	Rajendra Somani	Mumbai	188

1st Preference Votes for Central Council

Sr. No.	Name	1st  Preference
1	Rajkumar Adukia	1663
2	Vijay Bhatt	1094
3	Sanjiv Brahme	369
4	Durgesh Buch	1401
5	Jay Chhaira	1540
6	Prafulla Chhajed	1277
7	Milan Chitalia	396
8	Lalit Dangi	846
9	Tarun Ghia	1732
10	Pooja Gupta	279
11	NC Hegde	1478
12	Pankaj Jain	1591
13	Nihar Jambusaria	2170
14	Shriniwas Joshi	1686
15	Durgesh Kabra	967
16	Suresh Kabra	493
17	Sanjeev Lalan	1332
18	Rajesh Loya	1519
19	Sanjeev Maheshwari	1756
20	Mayur Nayak	484
21	Sudhir Pandit	1160
22	Dhinal Shah	2494
23	Nilesh Vikamsey	2090
24	SB Zaware	2508

Re-counting is on as the total votes tally doesn't match

Re-counting is on as the total votes tally doesn't match, for both Central and Regional council.

Everyone is tired now.

90% Distribution is complete

90% Distribution is complete. Rest of the work is still in progress. Minimum one more hour to get the count of first preference votes.

Some Highlights:

• Parag Raval seems to top the regional council first preference tally.
• Dheenal Shah, Nilesh Vikamsey, SB Zavare seems to lead the tally in Central council.
• Nihar has done very well and is safe.
• Jay Chhaira and Durgesh Buch seems to have secured equal votes and are in fierce competition. 
• No one seems to have achieved quota in the first preference for the central council.
• In Central council, it seems the second preference votes will be the deciding factor.
• Sanjiv Brahme, Milan Chitalia, Lalit Dangi, Pooja Gupta, Durgesh Kabra, Suresh Kabra, Mayur Nayak, Sudhir Pandit seems to be out of race.

This is all based on the stacks so far in the tray, pure guess. 

Wait for the final results...

Vote distribution started for Regional Council too

Vote distribution started for Regional Council too.
The process will take around 2 hours..

Central Council votes distribution started

The vote distribution for the Central council has just begun. The votes with first preference will be stacked in the basket of the each of the candidates. This process of sorting 32000+ votes take around one hour and more... 

All the best to all my central council contestants friends..
Will keep you updated...

Regional council sorting will begin in some time, as process for 5% of votes still on...

Quota for Central Council & Regional council

Total Valid votes cast:
Central council: 32326 
Quota: 2694

Regional council: 32125  
Quota: 1397

Invalid Votes

Following are the invalid votes:
Central Council : 450
Regional Council: 645

The process of finalisation of valid ballots still on

The process of finalisation of valid ballots still on. Wait is long and process is lengthy, if not slow.. bear with it and hang on, expect results of first preference by early morning 3 am..

Dinner Break Now, process resumes after 30 min

Dinner Break Now, process resumes after 30 min.

Will have a long night today it seems.

Validation of ballot to identify invalid votes is on

Validation of ballot to identify invalid votes is on. This activity is being carried out parallel since beginning, so it's being done for the last set of boxes. Once it is determined, based on the valid votes, we will get the quota both for central Council and Regional council.

It will take minimum one hour or so...
Will keep you posted...

Prediction on Movement of Second Preference Votes on predicted eliminations

If one candidate is eliminated, to which candidate his or her vote would most likely go as a second preference? In other words, if someone eliminates, who will be the major recipient of those votes. Not considering the small recipients,  I have predicted how this should move in my opinion.

Please note, this is my opinion and it is not necessary these will be eliminated, but, if by any chance, they are eliminated at any stage, who will get the votes in order of no’s.  Please note, this is pure prediction on the pattern.

In case this candidate is eliminated	Who will get the majority of the votes from elimination
	1	2	3	4
Sanjiv Brahme	Shrinivas Joshi
Jay Chhaira	Suresh Kabra	Tarun Ghia	Sanjeev Maheshwari	Pankaj Jain
Milan Chitalia	Durgesh Kabra	Nihar Jambusariya
Lalit Dangi	Pankaj Jain	Sanjeev Maheshwari	Durgesh Kabra	Prafulla Chaajed
Pooja Gupta	Lalit Dangi	Sudhir Pandit	Vijay Bhatt	N C Hegde
Durgesh Kabra	Sanjeev Maheshwari	Nihar Jambusaria
Suresh Kabra	Jay Chhaira	Durgesh Kabra	Sanjeev Maheshwari
Rajesh Loya	Prafulla Chhajed	SB Zaware	Sudhir Pandit	Tarun Ghia
Mayur Nayak	Tarun Ghia	Nilesh Vikamsey	Pankaj Jain	Shrinivas Joshi
Sudhir Pandit	SB Zavare	Shrinivas Joshi	Prafulla Chhajed

Pakora Break

Thanks ICAI for hot Pakoras in this cold weather and election heat....
Nice to have this after announcement of postal ballots..

Postal Ballot details

Out of Total 338 envelopes received

275 Ballots accepted for Central council
269 Ballots accepted for regional council

Rest 60 are invalid for following reasons:

26 courier 
11 ordinary post
1 signature not tallying
4 no declaration found
8 declaration not signed
7 ballot posted from other city /country
3 Overseas voters posted from India

13 more boxes to be opened

13 more boxes to be opened. 
Then the validity of the votes to be checked, then counts of final valid vote comes, which determines the quota...

WIRC Pune candidates

From Pune, Dilip Apte is re-contesting. Apart from him, five more candidates are in fray from Pune. Vijay Chhallani, Sarvesh Joshi, Vijaykant Kulkarni, Satyanarayan Mundada and Ashok Pagariya. Dilip Apte is in? Of course he has an edge due to being a sitting member, provided some loss in Pune is recovered by additional gain in Mumbai.  For the other seats, in my opinion, Sarvesh Joshi is the strong candidate for regional council followed by Ashok Pagariya. 

WIRC Ahmedabad candidates

From Ahmedabad, Parag Raval is sitting member and re-contesting the elections. Priyam Shah and Subodh Kedia are others in fray from Ahmedabad.

Parag will be no doubt highest vote getter. The million dollar question is, can Ahmedabad have three candidates in WIRC? Looking at the current scenario, I will say no. The no. of vote casted and high quota has made it very difficult for the entire Ahmedabad candidates to be in. Then who is the no. 2 after Parag? In my opinion it is Subodh Kedia. Why not Priyam? I think the biggest advantage of Subodh is being the existing branch member and his high visibility among the members. Priyam too has its pocket of votes, but beyond that Priyam has limited appeal. Both of them are new faces to people outside Ahmedabad. Here Subodh has advantage of his branch activities and exposure. The real game is who remains at no. 2 in the first preference votes. Looking at the current situation, I understand Subodh has an edge. Rest of the work will do the second preference votes of the eliminated candidate. The biggest disadvantage of both of them is that they will not get too much of second preference votes and when they will contest with Mumbai candidates, each of the eliminating Mumbai candidate will give a windfall to the other or others Mumbai candidate and will keep them moving. And this makes all three seats in WIRC tough. Moreover there are 22 new candidates in WIRC for four vacated seats only, if we take the sitting members are comfortable in getting through. In that case the fierce fighting at Mumbai will be disadvantageous for Ahmedabad to get all its three candidates elected. Good luck to both of them.

WIRC- Mumbai candidates..

Mumbai..

Let’s talk Mumbai. The highest vote getters are from Mumbai. I think the top notch votes should be received by Sunil Patodia, Mangesh Kinare, and Dheeraj Khadelwal.  Most of the 9 sitting candidates are safe, but it’s election, so might have some surprises. Four seats are vacated and likely to be filled in by Mumbai candidates. Let’s analyze who could be those four. There are total 22 new candidates from Mumbai contesting for these four seats. I have included Thane, Bhayandar, Vasai too in Mumbai.  I understand one would be from Mahesh Madkholkar and Sushrut Chitale. Both are very strong candidates and it all depends on who remains above in first preference votes. Tough and interesting contest. Mahesh has an edge of being a high visibility whereas Sushrut has an advantage of being son of past president. Keep your fingers crossed. And watch for the results.

For second seat in Mumbai, Priti Savla is hot favourite. She has a strong hold of CVO votes. What is CVO, please don’t ask me and ask any election pundit. 

Two candidates likely to win out of these contestants  Ashok Jain, Mahendra Mehta,  Sandeep Jain, and Jayesh Kala. Ashok Jain has an edge of being the sitting candidate.

For the fourth seat, the strong contender is Vandana Dodhia.

Apart from them, Raj Jagetia and Lalit Bajaj too have worked very hard and great possibilities of cracking in. if any one of them gets in, then they will upset some new comer.

What do you think? 

Let's talk WIRC

Let’s talk regional council. Not much of the commentator has worked on this. There are 22 seats in WIRC. Out of these 13 candidates are repeating and in the fray. The pro incumbency factor always plays in ICAI elections in contrast to general elections. Most likely, all the sitting members are going to win the election. There are nine sitting candidates from Mumbai, if you count Dilip Apte from Pune.  There are four candidates who are not re-contesting from Mumbai, Shrinivas Joshi, Durgesh Kabra, Sanjeev Lalan, and N C Hegde (All are contesting now central council election). So obviously there are four seats most likely to be filled by the Mumbai candidates.  And who are those four likely candidates?

Can Mumbai get one addition seat? If yes then who will lose? Nagpur?

And what about Dilip Apte? Shall we consider him a Mumbai candidate or Pune?

Does it matter? Does location matter? Yes. Though WIRC is one single constituency, but vote patterns and voting style are localized. Need proof? Any Mumbai candidate eliminating give its large chunk to another Mumbai candidate only. Any one from Ahmedabad eliminating giving the major portion to another Ahmedabadite.

Can Pune improves? If we consider Apte as Pune candidate, then can Pune have this time three candidates in WIRC? If yes, then at whose cost? Mumbai or Nagpur?

Can Ahmedabad increase its tally to three this time? If yes, then whose loss? Mumbai? Or Nagpur?

Can Surat lose its seat in WIRC?

Let’s begin answering the questions. Let me begin with Mumbai. See my next dispatch after lunch…