CCM: Post BM Agarwal elimination Dhiraj has become strong

As expected Dhiraj has become strong after elimination of BM Agarwal. He got highest 218 votes from BM. So now it has become really interesting and more complex.

I am asked why I think Parag is still fighting a battle and not in comfort zone? The reasons are as follows:

• There are still 5 candidates are to be eliminated before the final result and who are carrying 9500 votes.  And all the candidates are from Mumbai. So on distribution of these 9500 votes of the eliminating candidates, the major benefit from these votes would be to Mumbai candidates only and Parag and Julfesh will get the minor transfer of votes, not a big chunk. In such situation, though Parag is at no. 6 from beginning, he will keep coming down. He has made very strong start and that is why he still has 90% chance to win, but not 100%. 
• On elimination of Shrinivas Joshi, Mangesh Kinnare will jump above. 
• One interesting thing, Tarun Ghia and Nihar has always been fierece election competitor and in results, Tarun Ghia has always had upper edge and more votes.

Here is the status after BM Agarwal distribution:

Position	NAME OF CANDIDATE	Votes
1	SHIWAJI ZAWARE-PUNE	3230
2	NILESH VIKAMSEY-MUMBAI	3230
3	DHINAL SHAH-AHMEDABAD	3031
4	JAY  CHHAIRA-SURAT	2874
5	NANDKISHORE HEGDE-MUMBAI	2787
6	PARAG RAVAL-AHMEDABAD	2409
7	TARUN GHIA-MUMBAI	2317
8	JULFESH SHAH -NAGPUR	2283
9	NIHAR JAMBUSARIA -MUMBAI	2242
10	PRAFULLA CHHAJED-MUMBAI	2134
11	MANGESH KINARE-MUMBAI	2052
12	DHIRAJ KHANDELWAL-MUMBAI	2038
13	ANIL BHANDARI-MUMBAI	2015
14	DURGESH KABRA-MUMBAI	1888
15	SANJEEV LALAN-MUMBAI	1814
16	SHRINIWAS JOSHI-MUMBAI	1770
17	BRIJMOHAN AGARWAL -MUMBAI	0
18	MAHESH MADKHOLKAR-THANE	0
19	PIYUSH CHHAJED-MUMBAI	0
20	SANJAY PAWAR-PUNE	0
21	NARENDRA SANGANI-MUMBAI	0
22	NARENDRA GUPTA-MUMBAI	0

RCM: Tally at the end of the day

Here is the last tally at the end of day today. There was not much progress today and RCM counting will takte another 2-3 days to conclude. Very slow and tiresome. Only two eliminations happened today.

In the below tally, here is the colour code:

	Elected
	Likely to win
	In contest
	Likely to be eliminated
	Eliminated

Position	NAME OF CANDIDATE	Votes
1	SAVLA PRITI PARAS- MUMBAI	1681
2	CHITALE SUSHRUT MUKUND- MUMBAI	1681
3	KHANDELWAL PURUSHOTTAM LAL- AHMEDABAD	1681
4	DESAI DRUSHTI RAHUL- MUMBAI	1671
5	ALSHI RAKESH GANPAT- MUMBAI	1636
6	TALATI ANIKET SUNIL- AHMEDABAD	1489
7	GADIA MANISH R- MUMBAI	1435
8	AGRAWAL PRADEEP KANAIYALAL- VADODARA	1345
9	KELKAR ABHIJIT JAYANT- NAGPUR	1339
10	SHARMA UMESH RAMNARAYAN- AURANGABAD	1244
11	SABOO KAMLESH- THANE	1181
12	SHAH PRIYAM RAMESHBHAI- AHMEDABAD	1122
13	MUNDADA SATYANARAYAN GOVERDHANLAL- PUNE	1079
14	AGARWAL VISHNU KUMAR - MUMBAI	1023
15	SHAH HARDIK PRAVINKUMAR- SURAT	1007
16	JAIN SANDEEP KAILASHCHAND- MUMBAI	956
17	KULKARNI VIKRANT MURLIDHAR- NASHIK	928
18	VAIDYA AMBARISH ASHOK- PUNE	895
19	JOSHI SARVESH NANDLAL- PUNE	846
20	KALA JAYESH UMEDMAL- MUMBAI	815
21	MAJITHIA NEEL PANKAJ- MUMBAI	807
22	BAJAJ LALIT LAXMINARAYAN- MUMBAI	793
23	AGARWAL BALKISHAN - SURAT	786
24	MEHENDALE KEDAR ACHYUT- MUMBAI	758
25	SHINAGARE SHILPA BABASAHEB- MUMBAI	742
26	KACHWALA MURTUZA ONALI- KALYAN	674
27	SHAH SHRUTI JAYESH - MUMBAI	665
28	BARMECHA MOHANLAL SAMPATLAL- AHMEDNAGAR	664
29	KEDIA SUBODHKUMAR BAJRANGLAL- AHMEDABAD	656
30	PALIWAL DAYARAM- MUMBAI	584
31	BHUTWALA HAREKRUSHNA BALVANTRAI- SURAT	583
32	DODHIA VANDANA VERSHIBHAI- MUMBAI	524
33	JAIN ASHOK CHAND- MUMBAI	500
34	LELE PRAMOD VISHNU- THANE	482
35	AGRAWAL VIMAL KUMAR- MUMBAI	442
36	GANDHI PREMAL HEMANT- MUMBAI	430
37	AGRAWAL ASHWINI SURESH - NAGPUR	428
38	JAIN MAHAVIR SHANTILAL- THANE	414
39	SANGHAVI ANKIT PANKAJ- MUMBAI	390
40	SARDA SATISH GIRDHARLAL- NAGPUR	382
41	AGARWAL MANOJKUMAR BABULAL - PIMPRI	357
42	DHAKER GOPAL- MUMBAI	309
43	MUNDADE BIPEEN GOPALDAS- MUMBAI	292
44	KASLIWAL AMBAR- MUMBAI	290
45	AGRAWAL SWAPNIL MUKUND - NAGAPUR	272
46	WARTY SHANTESH ARVIND- MUMBAI	247
47	DEHERKAR ARUN VASANT- THANE	91
48	JAIN ARUN LAXMICHAND- MUMBAI	0
49	VORA JAYESH SURYAKANT- MUMBAI	0