CCM: Post BM Agarwal elimination Dhiraj has become strong

As expected Dhiraj has become strong after elimination of BM Agarwal. He got highest 218 votes from BM. So now it has become really interesting and more complex.

I am asked why I think Parag is still fighting a battle and not in comfort zone? The reasons are as follows:

• There are still 5 candidates are to be eliminated before the final result and who are carrying 9500 votes.  And all the candidates are from Mumbai. So on distribution of these 9500 votes of the eliminating candidates, the major benefit from these votes would be to Mumbai candidates only and Parag and Julfesh will get the minor transfer of votes, not a big chunk. In such situation, though Parag is at no. 6 from beginning, he will keep coming down. He has made very strong start and that is why he still has 90% chance to win, but not 100%. 
• On elimination of Shrinivas Joshi, Mangesh Kinnare will jump above. 
• One interesting thing, Tarun Ghia and Nihar has always been fierece election competitor and in results, Tarun Ghia has always had upper edge and more votes.

Here is the status after BM Agarwal distribution:

Position	NAME OF CANDIDATE	Votes
1	SHIWAJI ZAWARE-PUNE	3230
2	NILESH VIKAMSEY-MUMBAI	3230
3	DHINAL SHAH-AHMEDABAD	3031
4	JAY  CHHAIRA-SURAT	2874
5	NANDKISHORE HEGDE-MUMBAI	2787
6	PARAG RAVAL-AHMEDABAD	2409
7	TARUN GHIA-MUMBAI	2317
8	JULFESH SHAH -NAGPUR	2283
9	NIHAR JAMBUSARIA -MUMBAI	2242
10	PRAFULLA CHHAJED-MUMBAI	2134
11	MANGESH KINARE-MUMBAI	2052
12	DHIRAJ KHANDELWAL-MUMBAI	2038
13	ANIL BHANDARI-MUMBAI	2015
14	DURGESH KABRA-MUMBAI	1888
15	SANJEEV LALAN-MUMBAI	1814
16	SHRINIWAS JOSHI-MUMBAI	1770
17	BRIJMOHAN AGARWAL -MUMBAI	0
18	MAHESH MADKHOLKAR-THANE	0
19	PIYUSH CHHAJED-MUMBAI	0
20	SANJAY PAWAR-PUNE	0
21	NARENDRA SANGANI-MUMBAI	0
22	NARENDRA GUPTA-MUMBAI	0