Votes after Mahesh's elimination and before BM Agarwal's distribution

So now they call the day off for today. B M Agarwal will live with one more night with his 1481 votes which will be distributed tomorrow morning. Here is the tally of votes at the end of the day:

Position	NAME OF CANDIDATE	Votes
1	SHIWAJI ZAWARE-PUNE	3230
2	NILESH VIKAMSEY-MUMBAI	3230
3	DHINAL SHAH-AHMEDABAD	2977
4	JAY  CHHAIRA-SURAT	2784
5	NANDKISHORE HEGDE-MUMBAI	2703
6	PARAG RAVAL-AHMEDABAD	2369
7	JULFESH SHAH -NAGPUR	2244
8	TARUN GHIA-MUMBAI	2200
9	NIHAR JAMBUSARIA -MUMBAI	2175
10	MANGESH KINARE-MUMBAI	2024
11	PRAFULLA CHHAJED-MUMBAI	1990
12	ANIL BHANDARI-MUMBAI	1860
13	DHIRAJ KHANDELWAL-MUMBAI	1820
14	SHRINIWAS JOSHI-MUMBAI	1748
15	SANJEEV LALAN-MUMBAI	1746
16	DURGESH KABRA-MUMBAI	1735
17	BRIJMOHAN AGARWAL -MUMBAI	1481
18	MAHESH MADKHOLKAR-THANE	0
19	PIYUSH CHHAJED-MUMBAI	0
20	SANJAY PAWAR-PUNE	0
21	NARENDRA SANGANI-MUMBAI	0
22	NARENDRA GUPTA-MUMBAI	0

Exit of Shrinvas Joshi

Now it is confirmed and final. Shrinvas Joshi has lost the battle. Mangesh Kinare is in the next council. congratulations!!

Another good news is now I see scope for Parag Raval at no. 11. He has now chance to be in the council and Ahmedabad may have two central council members. That will be amazing and I will be liking it to see that happening. Ame Amdavadi!!

Keep the fingers crossed. Julfesh has also the equal chance to represent Nagpur in council.

Now it looks following candidates are more or less in:

• Tarun Ghia
• Nihar Jambusaria
• Prafulla Chhajed
• Dhiraj Khandelwal
• Mangesh Kinare

Parag is at no. 6 and these candidates may take him over one by one. Keep on watching.

Mahesh Madkholkar's elimination will decide fate of Shrinivas Joshi

Wait for the first surprise of this election results. The monmet Mahesh Madkholkar is eliminated, you will see the fate of Shrinivas Joshi. If his elimnation gives more votes to Shrinvas than to Mangesh that it can cover the lead of 174 votes, then only Shriniovas Joshi has the chance. And this is most unlikely to cover the lead of 175 votes. So be ready for the first shock of this election.

CCM: Key development after Piyush Chhajed elimination

• Prafulla Chhajed is now jumped to 10th place and believe me, he will now remain there for sure. He will not move below first 11 now onwards. So we now got Prafulla as almost confirmed to win with no look back.
• Brijmohan Agarwal ‘s hope are eliminated. He will be soon eliminated.
• What is interesting to see is whom he gives the windfall. The major gainer will be Dhiraj Khandelwal and we can see that Dhiraj can also be in 11. If Dhiraj comes in first 11 after BM elimination, then he is for sure and he will not move down. May be few ups and downs here and there.

Position	NAME OF CANDIDATE	Votes
1	22. ZAWARE SHIWAJI BHIKAJI - (PUNE)	3230
2	21. VIKAMSEY NILESH SHIVJI - (MUMBAI)	3230
3	19. SHAH DHINAL ASHVINBHAI - (AHMEDABAD)	2960
4	3. CHHAIRA JAY AJIT - (SURAT)	2733
5	8. HEGDE NANDKISHORE CHIDAMBER - (MUMBAI)	2634
6	17. RAVAL PARAG RAJNIKANT - (AHMEDABAD)	2358
7	20. SHAH JULFESH MADHUSUDAN - (NAGPUR)	2230
8	6. GHIA TARUN JAMNADAS - (MUMBAI)	2200
9	9. JAMBUSARIA NIHAR NIRANJAN - (MUMBAI)	2126
10	5. CHHAJED PRAFULLA PREMSUKH - (MUMBAI)	1911
11	2. BHANDARI ANIL SATYANARAYAN - (MUMBAI)	1796
12	12. KHANDELWAL DHIRAJ KUMAR - (MUMBAI)	1778
13	11. KABRA DURGESH KUMAR - (MUMBAI)	1695
14	14. LALAN SANJEEV DUNGARSHI - (MUMBAI)	1693
15	13. KINARE MANGESH PANDURANG -(MUMBAI)	1673
16	10. JOSHI SHRINIWAS YESHWANT - (MUMBAI)	1507
17	1. AGARWAL BRIJMOHAN - (MUMBAI)	1481
18	15. MADKHOLKAR MAHESH KESHAV - (THANE)	1309
19	4. CHHAJED PIYUSH SOHANRAJJI - (MUMBAI)	0
20	16. PAWAR SANJAY NARAYAN - (PUNE)	0
21	18. SANGANI NARENDRA MADHUSUDAN -(MUMBAI)	0
22	7. GUPTA JAI NARAYAN - (MUMBAI)	0

CCM: Piyush Chhajed being eliminated

Piyush Chhajed is being eliminated and that will give you a very good indication on how the things will go ahead and will impact many suburb candidates. Wait for the result. And offcourse, we will see the surname effect after this elimination too.

Don't confuse with Prafulla Chhajed.. And those who voted for him in confusing with Prafulla, don't worry, you will get back to Prafulla after this elimination.

Why Umesh Sharma and Vikrant has tough battle despite good first preferences?

Umesh Sharma has received very good number of votes (1241). A great head start which many of the Mumbai candidates can't even think of. Despite that you will see that those getting even 300-400 less first preference votes than him will jump in and overtake him and will be elected before Umesh is declared elected. The reason being he comes from Aurangabad, And Mumbai eliminations gives benefit to Mumbaikar only. You will see him winning but at the later stage and not so soon. May be at some stage ups and downs.

The same with Vikrtant Kulkarni from Nashik who got 926 votes and will be on tenterhook till the end. Whether he can make to WIRC will depend totally on his ability to get votes from rest of Maharashtra eliminations which are not many and from Mumbai, where we can't expect many votes.

So watch them and it will be really very interesting..

RCM battle is open only for seven seats

In my opinion the battle for RCM is open only for seven seats. 15 seats are already occupied. It is only a matter of time that they will be declared winner. 

1.       The three seats are already won and elected as they crossed the quota:

i.         Priti Savla

ii.       Sushrut Chitale

iii.      Purushottam Khandelwal

2.       And next 12 seats are occupied by following contestants and they are sure winner, few later, few sooner:

i.         Drushti Desai

ii.       Rakesh Alshi

iii.      Aniket Talati

iv.     Manish Gadia

v.       Pradeep Agarwal

vi.     Abhijit Kelkar

vii.    Kamlesh Saboo

viii.  Priyam Shah

ix.     Satyanarayn Mundada

x.       Vishnu Agarwal

xi.     Hardik Shah

xii.    Sandeep Jain

3.       Who will be those 7 luckiest people, it will take two days time to get the final picture, but wait for next analysis, we will talk about that.

RCM Pune: Sarvesh Joshi or Ambrish Vaidya

Pune has given a great results. Looking at the chart, Satyanarayan Mundada has obviously made it and there is no second opinion on that. But the real question is who out of Sarvesh Joshi and Ambrish Vaidya or both. This will be really a very interesting battle. This all depends upon how these two candidates gather the votes from rest of the Maharashtra and Mumbai.

Manoj Kumar Agarwal from Pimpri has a kitty of 356 votes. On his elimination, where the votes flow is really interesting to see. The key is being above the other. So whomsoever remain above the other is the winner. Currently Ambarish has a lead of 45 votes above his counter part Sarvesh. But you never know.


What's your opinion on that? Who out of these two has great appeal out of Pune?

CCM: Status after the first elimination

For those who are new to the process.

• The candidate who has got the least number of first preference votes, that candidate is eliminated and those votes are transferred to the candidates who got the second preference vote in those ballets. So that become first preference for the candidates who receive those ballets.
• The candidate who gets the quota, no further votes are not distributed to that candidate and it goes than to the next preference. 
• Now Mr. Zaware has achieved the quota, so he is elected and he will no more get any additional votes from any elimination.

Here is the picture after first elimination.:

Position	NAME OF CANDIDATE	Votes
1	22. ZAWARE SHIWAJI BHIKAJI - (PUNE)	3230
2	21. VIKAMSEY NILESH SHIVJI - (MUMBAI)	3115
3	19. SHAH DHINAL ASHVINBHAI - (AHMEDABAD)	2928
4	3. CHHAIRA JAY AJIT - (SURAT)	2687
5	8. HEGDE NANDKISHORE CHIDAMBER - (MUMBAI)	2562
6	17. RAVAL PARAG RAJNIKANT - (AHMEDABAD)	2322
7	20. SHAH JULFESH MADHUSUDAN - (NAGPUR)	2147
8	9. JAMBUSARIA NIHAR NIRANJAN - (MUMBAI)	2059
9	6. GHIA TARUN JAMNADAS - (MUMBAI)	2005
10	2. BHANDARI ANIL SATYANARAYAN - (MUMBAI)	1694
11	12. KHANDELWAL DHIRAJ KUMAR - (MUMBAI)	1683
12	5. CHHAJED PRAFULLA PREMSUKH - (MUMBAI)	1670
13	14. LALAN SANJEEV DUNGARSHI - (MUMBAI)	1661
14	11. KABRA DURGESH KUMAR - (MUMBAI)	1627
15	13. KINARE MANGESH PANDURANG -(MUMBAI)	1607
16	1. AGARWAL BRIJMOHAN - (MUMBAI)	1402
17	10. JOSHI SHRINIWAS YESHWANT - (MUMBAI)	1398
18	15. MADKHOLKAR MAHESH KESHAV - (THANE)	1254
19	4. CHHAJED PIYUSH SOHANRAJJI - (MUMBAI)	952
20	16. PAWAR SANJAY NARAYAN - (PUNE)	624
21	18. SANGANI NARENDRA MADHUSUDAN -(MUMBAI)	40
22	7. GUPTA JAI NARAYAN - (MUMBAI)	0

CCM: Show begins now

·         Who are the candidates whom we can consider as elected and formal announcement is only a matter of time?

1.      S B Zware

2.      Nilesh Vikamsey

3.      Dhinal Shah

4.      Jay Chhaira

5.      N C Hegde

6.      One from Mangesh Kinare /Shrinivas Joshi

7.      7 and 8 numbers from two from below:

§  Dhiraj Khandelwal

§  B M Agarwal

§  Anil Bhandari

§  Durgesh Kabra

8.      For 9,10,11 three out of below should make it:

§  Prafulla Chhajed

§  Nihar Jambusaria

§  Tarun Ghia

§  Parag /Sanjiv/Julfesh

9.      It will be interesting to watch these three candidates what happens to them and how luck support them and can they withstand the Mumbai elimination game:

§  Parag Raval

§  Sanjiv Lalan

§  Julfesh Shah

 

·         Who are the candidates who has now no chance and their elimination is only a matter of time:

1.      Jay Gupta

2.      Sangani

3.      Sanjay Pawar

4.      Piyush Chhajed

5.      Mahesh Madhkholkar

·         Now 12 candidates are contesting for remaining 6 seats. Very very tough fight. And of course very interesting.

·         One is sure from Dhiraj Khandelwal and B M Agarwal. BM though seen at no. 16 at this point, but may jump back, if Piyush Chhajed give him a windfall. Otherwise his hopes for central council may rest in peace. If BM eliminates, Dhiraj will be the highest gainer from him, and vice versa of course.

·         There a very tough fight between Mangesh Kinare and Shrinvas Joshi. As this point Mangesh Kinare has upper hand. Mahesh Madhkholkar elimination will seal the fate of them.