23 December 2015

RCM: Tally at the end of the day

Here is the last tally at the end of day today. There was not much progress today and RCM counting will takte another 2-3 days to conclude. Very slow and tiresome. Only two eliminations happened today.

In the below tally, here is the colour code:

Elected

Likely to win

In contest

Likely to be eliminated

Eliminated



Position
NAME OF CANDIDATE
Votes
1
 SAVLA PRITI PARAS- MUMBAI
1681
2
 CHITALE SUSHRUT MUKUND- MUMBAI
1681
3
 KHANDELWAL PURUSHOTTAM LAL- AHMEDABAD
1681
4
 DESAI DRUSHTI RAHUL- MUMBAI
1671
5
 ALSHI RAKESH GANPAT- MUMBAI
1636
6
 TALATI ANIKET SUNIL- AHMEDABAD
1489
7
 GADIA MANISH R- MUMBAI
1435
8
 AGRAWAL PRADEEP KANAIYALAL- VADODARA
1345
9
 KELKAR ABHIJIT JAYANT- NAGPUR
1339
10
 SHARMA UMESH RAMNARAYAN- AURANGABAD
1244
11
 SABOO KAMLESH- THANE
1181
12
 SHAH PRIYAM RAMESHBHAI- AHMEDABAD
1122
13
 MUNDADA SATYANARAYAN GOVERDHANLAL- PUNE
1079
14
 AGARWAL VISHNU KUMAR - MUMBAI
1023
15
 SHAH HARDIK PRAVINKUMAR- SURAT
1007
16
 JAIN SANDEEP KAILASHCHAND- MUMBAI
956
17
 KULKARNI VIKRANT MURLIDHAR- NASHIK
928
18
 VAIDYA AMBARISH ASHOK- PUNE
895
19
 JOSHI SARVESH NANDLAL- PUNE
846
20
 KALA JAYESH UMEDMAL- MUMBAI
815
21
 MAJITHIA NEEL PANKAJ- MUMBAI
807
22
 BAJAJ LALIT LAXMINARAYAN- MUMBAI
793
23
 AGARWAL BALKISHAN - SURAT
786
24
 MEHENDALE KEDAR ACHYUT- MUMBAI
758
25
 SHINAGARE SHILPA BABASAHEB- MUMBAI
742
26
 KACHWALA MURTUZA ONALI- KALYAN
674
27
 SHAH SHRUTI JAYESH - MUMBAI
665
28
 BARMECHA MOHANLAL SAMPATLAL- AHMEDNAGAR
664
29
 KEDIA SUBODHKUMAR BAJRANGLAL- AHMEDABAD
656
30
 PALIWAL DAYARAM- MUMBAI
584
31
 BHUTWALA HAREKRUSHNA BALVANTRAI- SURAT
583
32
 DODHIA VANDANA VERSHIBHAI- MUMBAI
524
33
 JAIN ASHOK CHAND- MUMBAI
500
34
 LELE PRAMOD VISHNU- THANE
482
35
 AGRAWAL VIMAL KUMAR- MUMBAI
442
36
 GANDHI PREMAL HEMANT- MUMBAI
430
37
 AGRAWAL ASHWINI SURESH - NAGPUR
428
38
 JAIN MAHAVIR SHANTILAL- THANE
414
39
 SANGHAVI ANKIT PANKAJ- MUMBAI
390
40
 SARDA SATISH GIRDHARLAL- NAGPUR
382
41
 AGARWAL MANOJKUMAR BABULAL - PIMPRI
357
42
 DHAKER GOPAL- MUMBAI
309
43
 MUNDADE BIPEEN GOPALDAS- MUMBAI
292
44
 KASLIWAL AMBAR- MUMBAI
290
45
 AGRAWAL SWAPNIL MUKUND - NAGAPUR
272
46
 WARTY SHANTESH ARVIND- MUMBAI
247
47
 DEHERKAR ARUN VASANT- THANE
91
48
 JAIN ARUN LAXMICHAND- MUMBAI
0
49
 VORA JAYESH SURYAKANT- MUMBAI
0

22 December 2015

Votes after Mahesh's elimination and before BM Agarwal's distribution

So now they call the day off for today. B M Agarwal will live with one more night with his 1481 votes which will be distributed tomorrow morning. Here is the tally of votes at the end of the day:

Position
NAME OF CANDIDATE
Votes
1
SHIWAJI ZAWARE-PUNE
3230
2
NILESH VIKAMSEY-MUMBAI
3230
3
DHINAL SHAH-AHMEDABAD
2977
4
JAY  CHHAIRA-SURAT
2784
5
NANDKISHORE HEGDE-MUMBAI
2703
6
PARAG RAVAL-AHMEDABAD
2369
7
JULFESH SHAH -NAGPUR
2244
8
TARUN GHIA-MUMBAI
2200
9
NIHAR JAMBUSARIA -MUMBAI
2175
10
MANGESH KINARE-MUMBAI
2024
11
PRAFULLA CHHAJED-MUMBAI
1990
12
ANIL BHANDARI-MUMBAI
1860
13
DHIRAJ KHANDELWAL-MUMBAI
1820
14
SHRINIWAS JOSHI-MUMBAI
1748
15
SANJEEV LALAN-MUMBAI
1746
16
DURGESH KABRA-MUMBAI
1735
17
BRIJMOHAN AGARWAL -MUMBAI
1481
18
MAHESH MADKHOLKAR-THANE
0
19
PIYUSH CHHAJED-MUMBAI
0
20
SANJAY PAWAR-PUNE
0
21
NARENDRA SANGANI-MUMBAI
0
22
NARENDRA GUPTA-MUMBAI
0


Exit of Shrinvas Joshi

Now it is confirmed and final. Shrinvas Joshi has lost the battle. Mangesh Kinare is in the next council. congratulations!!

Another good news is now I see scope for Parag Raval at no. 11. He has now chance to be in the council and Ahmedabad may have two central council members. That will be amazing and I will be liking it to see that happening. Ame Amdavadi!!

Keep the fingers crossed. Julfesh has also the equal chance to represent Nagpur in council.

Now it looks following candidates are more or less in:

  • Tarun Ghia
  • Nihar Jambusaria
  • Prafulla Chhajed
  • Dhiraj Khandelwal
  • Mangesh Kinare
Parag is at no. 6 and these candidates may take him over one by one. Keep on watching.

Mahesh Madkholkar's elimination will decide fate of Shrinivas Joshi

Wait for the first surprise of this election results. The monmet Mahesh Madkholkar is eliminated, you will see the fate of Shrinivas Joshi. If his elimnation gives more votes to Shrinvas than to Mangesh that it can cover the lead of 174 votes, then only Shriniovas Joshi has the chance. And this is most unlikely to cover the lead of 175 votes. So be ready for the first shock of this election.

CCM: Key development after Piyush Chhajed elimination


  • Prafulla Chhajed is now jumped to 10th place and believe me, he will now remain there for sure. He will not move below first 11 now onwards. So we now got Prafulla as almost confirmed to win with no look back.
  • Brijmohan Agarwal ‘s hope are eliminated. He will be soon eliminated.
  • What is interesting to see is whom he gives the windfall. The major gainer will be Dhiraj Khandelwal and we can see that Dhiraj can also be in 11. If Dhiraj comes in first 11 after BM elimination, then he is for sure and he will not move down. May be few ups and downs here and there.

Position
NAME OF CANDIDATE
Votes
1
22. ZAWARE SHIWAJI BHIKAJI - (PUNE)
3230
2
21. VIKAMSEY NILESH SHIVJI - (MUMBAI)
3230
3
19. SHAH DHINAL ASHVINBHAI - (AHMEDABAD)
2960
4
3. CHHAIRA JAY AJIT - (SURAT)
2733
5
8. HEGDE NANDKISHORE CHIDAMBER - (MUMBAI)
2634
6
17. RAVAL PARAG RAJNIKANT - (AHMEDABAD)
2358
7
20. SHAH JULFESH MADHUSUDAN - (NAGPUR)
2230
8
6. GHIA TARUN JAMNADAS - (MUMBAI)
2200
9
9. JAMBUSARIA NIHAR NIRANJAN - (MUMBAI)
2126
10
5. CHHAJED PRAFULLA PREMSUKH - (MUMBAI)
1911
11
2. BHANDARI ANIL SATYANARAYAN - (MUMBAI)
1796
12
12. KHANDELWAL DHIRAJ KUMAR - (MUMBAI)
1778
13
11. KABRA DURGESH KUMAR - (MUMBAI)
1695
14
14. LALAN SANJEEV DUNGARSHI - (MUMBAI)
1693
15
13. KINARE MANGESH PANDURANG -(MUMBAI)
1673
16
10. JOSHI SHRINIWAS YESHWANT - (MUMBAI)
1507
17
1. AGARWAL BRIJMOHAN - (MUMBAI)
1481
18
15. MADKHOLKAR MAHESH KESHAV - (THANE)
1309
19
4. CHHAJED PIYUSH SOHANRAJJI - (MUMBAI)
0
20
16. PAWAR SANJAY NARAYAN - (PUNE)
0
21
18. SANGANI NARENDRA MADHUSUDAN -(MUMBAI)
0
22
7. GUPTA JAI NARAYAN - (MUMBAI)
0

CCM: Piyush Chhajed being eliminated

Piyush Chhajed is being eliminated and that will give you a very good indication on how the things will go ahead and will impact many suburb candidates. Wait for the result. And offcourse, we will see the surname effect after this elimination too.

Don't confuse with Prafulla Chhajed.. And those who voted for him in confusing with Prafulla, don't worry, you will get back to Prafulla after this elimination.

Why Umesh Sharma and Vikrant has tough battle despite good first preferences?

Umesh Sharma has received very good number of votes (1241). A great head start which many of the Mumbai candidates can't even think of. Despite that you will see that those getting even 300-400 less first preference votes than him will jump in and overtake him and will be elected before Umesh is declared elected. The reason being he comes from Aurangabad, And Mumbai eliminations gives benefit to Mumbaikar only. You will see him winning but at the later stage and not so soon. May be at some stage ups and downs.

The same with Vikrtant Kulkarni from Nashik who got 926 votes and will be on tenterhook till the end. Whether he can make to WIRC will depend totally on his ability to get votes from rest of Maharashtra eliminations which are not many and from Mumbai, where we can't expect many votes.

So watch them and it will be really very interesting..


RCM battle is open only for seven seats


In my opinion the battle for RCM is open only for seven seats. 15 seats are already occupied. It is only a matter of time that they will be declared winner. 

1.       The three seats are already won and elected as they crossed the quota:
i.         Priti Savla
ii.       Sushrut Chitale
iii.      Purushottam Khandelwal
2.       And next 12 seats are occupied by following contestants and they are sure winner, few later, few sooner:
i.         Drushti Desai
ii.       Rakesh Alshi
iii.      Aniket Talati
iv.     Manish Gadia
v.       Pradeep Agarwal
vi.     Abhijit Kelkar
vii.    Kamlesh Saboo
viii.  Priyam Shah
ix.     Satyanarayn Mundada
x.       Vishnu Agarwal
xi.     Hardik Shah
xii.    Sandeep Jain


3.       Who will be those 7 luckiest people, it will take two days time to get the final picture, but wait for next analysis, we will talk about that.

RCM Pune: Sarvesh Joshi or Ambrish Vaidya

Pune has given a great results. Looking at the chart, Satyanarayan Mundada has obviously made it and there is no second opinion on that. But the real question is who out of Sarvesh Joshi and Ambrish Vaidya or both. This will be really a very interesting battle. This all depends upon how these two candidates gather the votes from rest of the Maharashtra and Mumbai.

Manoj Kumar Agarwal from Pimpri has a kitty of 356 votes. On his elimination, where the votes flow is really interesting to see. The key is being above the other. So whomsoever remain above the other is the winner. Currently Ambarish has a lead of 45 votes above his counter part Sarvesh. But you never know.


What's your opinion on that? Who out of these two has great appeal out of Pune?

CCM: Status after the first elimination

For those who are new to the process.

  • The candidate who has got the least number of first preference votes, that candidate is eliminated and those votes are transferred to the candidates who got the second preference vote in those ballets. So that become first preference for the candidates who receive those ballets.
  • The candidate who gets the quota, no further votes are not distributed to that candidate and it goes than to the next preference. 
  • Now Mr. Zaware has achieved the quota, so he is elected and he will no more get any additional votes from any elimination.
Here is the picture after first elimination.:


Position
NAME OF CANDIDATE
Votes
1
22. ZAWARE SHIWAJI BHIKAJI - (PUNE)
3230
2
21. VIKAMSEY NILESH SHIVJI - (MUMBAI)
3115
3
19. SHAH DHINAL ASHVINBHAI - (AHMEDABAD)
2928
4
3. CHHAIRA JAY AJIT - (SURAT)
2687
5
8. HEGDE NANDKISHORE CHIDAMBER - (MUMBAI)
2562
6
17. RAVAL PARAG RAJNIKANT - (AHMEDABAD)
2322
7
20. SHAH JULFESH MADHUSUDAN - (NAGPUR)
2147
8
9. JAMBUSARIA NIHAR NIRANJAN - (MUMBAI)
2059
9
6. GHIA TARUN JAMNADAS - (MUMBAI)
2005
10
2. BHANDARI ANIL SATYANARAYAN - (MUMBAI)
1694
11
12. KHANDELWAL DHIRAJ KUMAR - (MUMBAI)
1683
12
5. CHHAJED PRAFULLA PREMSUKH - (MUMBAI)
1670
13
14. LALAN SANJEEV DUNGARSHI - (MUMBAI)
1661
14
11. KABRA DURGESH KUMAR - (MUMBAI)
1627
15
13. KINARE MANGESH PANDURANG -(MUMBAI)
1607
16
1. AGARWAL BRIJMOHAN - (MUMBAI)
1402
17
10. JOSHI SHRINIWAS YESHWANT - (MUMBAI)
1398
18
15. MADKHOLKAR MAHESH KESHAV - (THANE)
1254
19
4. CHHAJED PIYUSH SOHANRAJJI - (MUMBAI)
952
20
16. PAWAR SANJAY NARAYAN - (PUNE)
624
21
18. SANGANI NARENDRA MADHUSUDAN -(MUMBAI)
40
22
7. GUPTA JAI NARAYAN - (MUMBAI)
0

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